Welcome to the next era of the Internet

The old cookie is crumbling.

Image generated by Bing AI

The only constant in this field is change — technology is always evolving. The year 2024 is expected to bring significant changes that will shake up the foundations of the digital world as we know it today. Some of these developments have been in progress for years, others are new and unpredictable. We will have to wait and see how they unfold. What we know for sure is that the way users experience the Internet is going to change, and there will be some confusion for many.

I’ve put together a summary of the expected developments and my predictions for you.

1. New ways of searching
2. The cookieless internet
3. Expansion of the fediverse
4. TikTok vs YouTube
5. Instagram’s battle for relevancy… and ad sales
6. Hot Metaverse summer?
7. Bonus: Tumblr’s comeback

1. New ways of searching

The search market is undergoing a transformative phase. It’s no longer just Google and maybe a little Bing; ChatGPT, Snap AI, Meta AI, and many other tools and apps are taking over. Users are exploring new avenues for finding information that suit their lifestyles and needs better.

What to expect:

• Google will finally fully release Bard using the Gemini AI, finally catching up with the competition. Users who have not yet jumped on the AI bandwagon will likely do so after this. I expect this to happen by March.
• Google, Apple, and Amazon will work on enhancing their voice assistants with new AI capabilities for a better voice search experience. Users already have access to ChatGPT’s Voice Conversations, and it seems that they are enjoying it!
• Wearable AI technology, such as Ray Ban Meta glasses, is steadily gaining traction. I predict the there will be a see of new AI products, but only few will stand out. Humane AI is unlikely to become popular in 2024, but I anticipate the company will take the feedback and return with a more polished solution and market strategy.
• The Visual Search tools on smartphones have already been improving, but the wearable tech will allow new ways to use them. We recently saw such integration in Meta’s Ray Bans. Get ready because soon people will be able to scan your outfits and find out where they are from.
• Expect to see new AI features on your iPhone, but they will likely be underwhelming compared to the competition.

2. The cookieless internet

Speaking of advertising, Google has begun the process of deprecating third-party cookies in its Chrome browser and plans to complete it by Q4, just in time for the busiest period in the advertising industry.

A cookieless internet would end the war against pixel tracking of user data that Apple initiated with iOS 14.5 in 2021. Both Google and Apple have faced criticism from competitors, privacy advocates, and regulators for the potential unfair advantage they could gain from these changes.

What to expect:

• Both Google and Apple will introduce new solutions for advertisers.
• Google’s proposed solution is called Federated Learning of Cohorts (FLoC), a new browser standard that will use algorithms to group users based on their browsing history. Google Chrome will pass the names of cohorts the user belongs to to websites and advertisers, who will need to determine the use cases for each cohort, such as matching them with their internal interest groups.
• Apple will likely introduce a protocol similar to FLoC, integrating it with its developer kits. It is also expected to launch its own DSP/SSP solution, which would process data locally on Apple’s devices and pass back anonymous reporting to the servers.
• For now, it’s impossible to predict how exactly this will play out. With both companies facing antitrust lawsuit in the US and EU, I don’t think this is going to be a fast or easy transition for the industry.

3. Expansion of the fediverse

For those not familiar with the fediverse yet, here’s a description from The Verge:

In a sentence, the fediverse is an interconnected set of apps that can all read and write the same content. Decentralized social media is often compared to email, in that you don’t have to compose, organize, and read your messages all in the same app, and you and I don’t have to use the same tools to communicate. Email apps can have different interfaces, different privacy policies, even wildly different ideas about what email is for. Every app knows what an email address is, and every email address can talk to every other.

Activity Pub (the fediverse protocol) has been around for a while, but the competition from giants networks like Meta has been preventing it from mass adoption.

With the decline of Twitter and the integration of platforms such as Wordpress, Medium and Flipboard in 2023, fediverse is poised for a great 2024. More people are discovering it, there is more content available for them to enjoy, and there are some great new apps to access it.

Most importantly, though, EU is continuing its push against the big tech, and there will likely be an extension of the Digital Marketers Act forcing social networks to open their gates.

Meta’s decision to make Threads compatible with Activity Pub is proof that market adoption of the fedierse is no longer a matter of if, but when.

What to expect:

• Meta will complete the integration of Threads by the end of the year, bringing millions of new users to the network.
• I predict that there will be a new viral fediverse platform created by the younger users fleeing X.
• As the network grows, we will see the first advertising products integrated into fediverse apps.
• If the speculations about Apple’s privacy-focused SSP/DSP ambitions materialize, the tech giant will likely be the first one to be considered for the network.

4. TikTok vs YouTube

Over the past four years, every other app has tried forcing short-form video content on users. YouTube also attempted this with Shorts, but the product didn’t become the breakthrough YouTube was hoping for.

In an ironic turn of events, TikTok is pivoting towards long-form video content, which YouTube has been the go-to platform for since the dawn of the Internet.

What to expect

• The roll-out of 15- and 30-minute videos will be gradual, which will allow TikTok to test the waters and get the implementation right.
• I predict longer videos will be more polished and professionally edited, as is often the case on YouTube. Expect more educational, podcast, TV and studio content.
• This change could be a positive one for advertisers — users will be more focused when watching longer videos which could result in higher engagement. However, UGC and studio content might not mix well together, creating a negative experience for users.
• I also predict that Spotify Podcasts will benefit from this, as more users (especially the younger folks) discover new shows that match their interests and end up (finally) giving Spotify Podcasts a try.
• It’s still unclear whether TikTok plans to have a separate section for longer videos. My prediction is that a dedicated section will eventually be implemented once users get used to the format.

5. Instagram’s battle for relevancy… and ad sales

TikTok is not a social network, it is an entertainment platform, and users love it for what it is. They used to love the other platforms for what they were good for — connecting with friends and community.

Instagram’s prioritization of video content, excessive ads, bots and misinformation have left users overwhelmed with the app. The app is increasingly becoming an avenue for entertainment consumption, while users are moving to the DMs seeking more social experience.

The challenge with the surging DM usage is that it is not monetized, and Instagram will need to implement new solutions to drive ad revenue.

What to expect:

• The EU’s March 2024 deadline for tech giants to make messaging apps interoperable is coming up. This might increase the use of messaging apps and push Social and Media further apart.
• Instagram has been working on a new Flipside feature, which is essentially a finsta hidden behind your regular profile. Only your designated followers will have access to what you post there, so it might encourage more in-feed posts. I think this will only work if the IG algorithm prioritizes this private content.
• The app will also be experimenting with long-form videos, which offer more ad slots and can be used to boost revenue from the Patreon-like subscriber model. Depending on how aggressive TikTok’s implementation of long-form ends up being, I think Instagram could have an opportunity to capitalize on users seeking short-term content, and make long-form a subscribers’ exclusive feature.
• Inspired by the success of Snapchat Plus, Instagram will likely experiment with a premium model offering additional features on the app. Meta recently started offering ad-free subscriptions in the EU, but exclusive features would offer a better value proposition for users.

6. Hot Metaverse summer?

Apple will be releasing the Vision Pro headset by early February. With limited inventory and an over $3K price tag, I expect the product’s exclusivity to generate viral hype. Most people still haven’t experienced AR/VR devices, and Vision Pro will ignite their interest.

What to expect

• I think AR/VR sales will have their best year yet.
• The improved technology, lower price tag, more apps and productivity features will generate interest towards Meta Quest, and it will become the new hot gift during the Q4 holidays.
• That is, of course, if the company doesn’t get itself into another new scandal during the US elections.
• By 2025 we might begin to learn about new AR/VR advertisiong opportunities.

Bonus: Tumblr’s comeback

This is a last-minute addition to the post since the trend seems to be gaining traction.

Automatic announced the plans to downsize Tumblr in November 2023, after the company’s failed attempts to revive the platform. If only they could wait a couple more months before making a decision.

2024 has brought an intense wave of nostalgia for the 2014 aesthetics, with Millennials and older Gen Z reminiscing the good old times, and the younger teenagers wishing they could experience that era of the internet.

With Instagram heavily focusing on video content, X being a dumpster fire and Threads struggling to break through, there is no better place to return to for some fun 2014 aesthetic images and cultural moment discussions.

As Wired noted, Tumblr has been said to be dying for the past decade, and yet it’s still around. I think this year could be the year of Tumblr’s revival, if only the company puts some effort into marketing it.

Final thoughts

So, there you have it. 2024 is going to be a wild ride for everyone.

Personally, I’m excited for what’s coming. This is going to be a great time for innovation and creative ideas. I believe we are headed towards a better, more ethical and user-centric internet, and more productive and fun technology.